Thought I was going to lose my power when the lights blinked but I was lucky and didn't lose last post, so, went ahead and posted it ....
Wanted to add ...
Would you be willing to post link to that Wx map so that I may keep an "eye on it" in between your posts/updates.
I am interested in paying closer attention to "price movement" as these storms develop to try to learn a bit more on the "lead time/fear factor" in the market as these storms "develop/or fade" !!!
I do feel that "offshore gulf production" has become slightly less important in the "overall Ng supply equation" of late, but still important. So, I would like to follow closely.
As you are likely aware, there were some "quite strong opinions" posted a while back on this forum on "not trading the weather", and a lot of that was valid as some "pretty strong" claims were being made.
I think that your "factual, sensible" observations have gone a long way to show that Wx is "important" in the overall equation, especially in the Ng market.
I don't think that it can be denied that the "high heat" gives rise to "high A/C usage" and increased Ng power burns, especially as more "utility/electricity generation" has moved toward Ng with the newer combined cycle plants.
Then, there are some, that feel that a Hurricane in the gulf, if it makes land fall (late summer) while temps./AC usage is still high even reduces Ng demand because the rain cuts the need for A/C way back !!!???
At this point, I suspect "Rabbit" would like to see "all the rain" he can get in Dallas !!!!
Something else that may be of interest on Ng usage, going forward is a link I found listing various "power plant types" by fuel and "staff required to operate" !!! Have to find it again.
There are many Ng plants (not base load" but of substantial output, that operate/are available, 16 hours a day, with something like 30 total employees !!!! Far less than coal plants and nuclear.
Coal plants are generally "base load" though, due to the time required to get them up to speed (but require a fair staff), and the Nuclear plants are generally run at 100% output (on cost) but also require about 600 employee's to operate !!!!
I found it interesting to find how "few staff" were required to operate a "present day" Ng fired plant.
- I clearly do not know all of the "numbers" but labor is not particularly "cheap these days" for that work !!??
I think that I have done "enough independent study of this market" to recognize the importance of supply/demand shifts that occur from the weather. Keeping the Wx related issues in "proper perspective" regarding "market price movement" is certainly a challenge !!!!
Anyway, has been interesting !!