There's a few storms brewing. The red circled storm in the middle of the pic is the one that poses the most risk. The yellow line is the model consensus track; the purple lines represent the range of uncertainty through the next 7 days. All models develop this into a significant hurricane (cat2-4); the big question is exactly where does it go. My feeling is that it will indeed be a gulf of mexico storm. A betting man would be tempted by NG and Oil futures today.