Hi STR,

Agree:
Looks like today (3/7} will be another valid down day (day 8) provided price stays below 2.395 and I doubt it has much chance of getting that high at the moment.

On:
"i have to recommend not playing until after nat gas report thursday"
Trading through the Thurs. report is always "risky" !!!

Not trying to call any "bottoms" here but I often view the trading behavior of the Wed. prior to report as a "clue" as to what may come .......

Seems to be a lot of struggling around 2.29 -- 2.30 today, showing some difficulty pushing price below 2.3 or so.

Strictly speaking tomorrow's report should be "bearish", but the "warm weather" has already been priced in and the player's don't seem to be able to push the price lower at the moment. We'll see how the rest of the day plays out.

Storage operators could still produce some "surprises" in the report, but would tend to be "bearish" pushing price lower.
- Some may still be between the "rock and hard place" in having to dump some storage on the market.
- Producing region salt caverns are about 95% full, so not too much room there.
- Some cycling still may need to be done (if they don't reduce pressures on some storage sites they can lose the gas as it migrates deeper into the strata and becomes unrecoverable). They are "better off" dumping the gas rather than losing it !!! If this were going to impact this weeks report, it should already have shown up in price.
- Short term demand/consumption should not have changed from last as the Weather has still been quite mild (about the only thing really impacting demand) at this point.
- Offline Nuclear plants (higher than normal) and coal switching are in the wrong direction and would tend to support price.

Price is still holding up well slightly above 2.3 as we head toward noon. The next 3 hours or so will tell the story !!!!

Storage operators could be "holding off" looking for a price rise (assuming production has not changed significantly) and the storage operators are likely in the best position to know.

Remember, tomorrow's report is based on "week old" EIA storage dip stick readings.

Barring any BIG surprises, I suspect a "bounce in price" tomorrow and THEN IF storage is going to be dumped to market it will be done at the "higher price".

So, I suspect a bounce in price tomorrow. Then if storage still needs to be cycled it will likely happen soon driving price back down. Injection season is very close at hand and I know of no "serious" colder weather in the offing !!!

CeeJay, where are you ??????????

Good Luck
Thanks, Lee