" But the markets reflect the future and the likelihood of these events actually occurring."
Yes exactly, and that was the point I was trying to make two posts ago. With the price suddenly popping up above that long term downtrend line on the Dec. contract suggests that the price charts are starting to reflect the reality of the potential threat to the crops from the drought. I wasn't suggesting anything other than that one point. You went way off on a tangent on me with your reply and didn't seem to understand the point I was trying to make.