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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: Drought Worsens/3 Grain ETF/Ceejay

You aren't the only one that has had their head handed to them playing weather alone. I recall a highly emotional ranting Nat Gas poster here one winter that was a 100% weather trader that was very dead wrong and cost a few traders some serious money. I won't say his handle as he still posts here. They are fanatics much like religious ones and love to jump up and down and pound the table ranting about extremes in the weather like the guy on the corner with the sign that says "The End is Near". Just can't help themselves. And if you spend the time on the subject of weather as I suspect you do I don't doubt you are a good forecaster. But as you say 'human behaviour' as reflected in the charts is powerful information. Most today say they use charts and understand them. But very few have spent the time to really understand what they are looking at. Now everyone claims to be a technician. Charting for Dummies book doesn't make for a good technical analyst. The problem is there are chart patterns within chart patterns and quantifying what's important and meaniful is not easy as there are a multitude of mixed patterns and signals in any chart. Seasonal trend charts in multiple time frames and bullish and bearish sentiment are just a few other important indicators that need to be used to come to conclusions. But any market is made up of a basket of possibilities. And if even one ingredient is changed or removed you have an entirely different result in the end. Just like the weather changing overnight and throwing the extreme projections out the window in a hurry. But in the end it all really doesn't matter much as it all comes down to "Quantifying Risk". Unless one is very good at doing that it really doesn't matter what they use to trade as they'll be out of funds regardless. So in the end we all have to get over ourselves and stop trying to be gurus that can predict much of anything. But trading the markets are ripe for big egos and grandiose predictions. Everyone wants to be a hero and pound their chest. Gets a little pathetic after awhile but just have to ignore it. Thanks for the post. Nice to read a rational one that makes sense now and again.